Market-based Groundwater Resources Management Considering the Uncertainty of Water Consumption Monitoring

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
S. Sharghi 1
R. Kerachian 2
S. Safari 1
1 University of Tehran
2 Professor, School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran
10.22034/23.4.143
Abstract
The decrease in access to groundwater resources and the constant drop in the water level of aquifers in different regions of the world due to the over extraction and unsustainable management of these resources have caused many environmental, economic and social problems. In the regard, lots of researches have been carried out about the groundwater market as a suitable solution for aquifers restoration. However in some cases the water market has increased the tension on water resources due to the lack of proper water market mechanism and monitoring of water withdrawals. The main purpose of this paper is to propose and evaluate a mechanism for the groundwater market in order to redistribute the water rights of groundwater resources and determine the exchange price in the market, taking into account the existing uncertainties. Therefore, proposing efficient and effective groundwater market mechanism, taking into account the institutional, economic, social and environmental components, is of great importance. In this article, proposing and evaluating the mechanism of the smart water market, a model has been presented for the management of groundwater resources by considering the existing uncertainties. Also, remote sensing of evapotranspiration is proposed as a new approach to measure and monitor water consumption in the groundwater market. In this regard, the uncertainty resulting from the error of remotely-sensed evapotranspiration in the results of the groundwater market mechanism has been evaluated using the robust decision-making (RDM) method. Based on the uncertainty resulting from the error of the remote sensing of the evapotranspiration, the amount of allowed water rights in each season has been considered as an interval. Since the probabilistic distribution of these variables is not known, it is necessary to use non-probabilistic methods to analyze the uncertainty and reach a robust decision. In this regard, considering all possible combinations of seasonal water rights (as different market scenarios) and calculating the decision criteria for each of them, the degree of desirability of these scenarios can be determined. The methodology can be generalized for different study areas, however to evaluate its efficiency, the proposed models and algorithms are assessed using the data of Nough region in Rafsanjan plain, as one of the forbidden plains with high economic value of water in terms of pistachio production. By designing and evaluating groundwater market mechanism, taking into account the economic and social components, sustainable management of groundwater resources is expected to be promoted and farmers' livelihoods to be less affected by water restrictive policies. The results show that the proposed mechanism of the seasonal groundwater market has increased the economic efficiency of water consumption in the study area by 25%. Also, with the implementation of the water market, the redistribution of water rights has a better fit with the users’ cultivated area. Finally, using RDM method, the best scenario is determined as a decision including the allowed water rights values for four auction seasons in the year of market implementation. By choosing the allowed seasonal water rights within the range of strategies related to the best scenario, it is possible to achieve a sustainable policy of seasonal redistribution of groundwater rights in the presence of uncertainty in the market monitoring algorithm.

Keywords

Subjects

Jaghdani, T. J., & Brümmer, B. (2015). Determinants of water purchases by pistachio producers in an informal groundwater market: A case study from Iran. Water Policy, 18(3), 599-618.
[2] Manjunatha, A. V., Speelman, S., Aravindakshan, S., Ts, A. B., & Mal, P. (2016). Impact of informal groundwater markets on efficiency of irrigated farms in India: a bootstrap data envelopment analysis approach. Irrigation Science, 34(1), 41-52
[3] Ahmadi, A., Zolfagharipoor, M. A., & Ebrahimi, B. (2019). Challenges and Considerations of Regional Water Market Rights, A Case Study: Isfahan-Borkhar Plain. Iran-Water Resources Research, 14(5), 146-159. (In Persian)
[4] Razzaq, A., Qing, P., Abid, M., Anwar, M., & Javed, I. (2019). Can the informal groundwater markets improve water use efficiency and equity? Evidence from a semi-arid region of Pakistan. Science of The Total Environment, 666, 849-857
[5] Aghaie, V., Alizadeh, H., & Afshar, A. (2020). Agent-based hydro-economic modelling for analysis of groundwater-based irrigation water market mechanisms. Agricultural Water Management, 234, 106140.
[6] Zolfagharipoor, M. A., Ahmadi, A., & Nikouei, A. (2020). Development of Inter-Sectional Water Market Framework for Improving Economic Efficiency of Groundwater Consumption. Iran-Water Resources Research, 16(1), 332-346. (In Persian)
[7] Matinju, M. H., & Alizadeh, H. (2021). Hydro-Economic Agent-Based Modelling for Simulation of the Water Market in Mojen. Iran-Water Resources Research, 16(4), 127-142. (In Persian)
[8] Zolfagharipoor, M. A., & Ahmadi, A. (2021). Agent-based modeling of participants' behaviors in an inter-sectoral groundwater market. Journal of Environmental Management, 299, 113560.
[9] Zolfagharipoor, M. A., Ahmadi, A., & Nikouei, A. (2022). Market-based groundwater resources allocation mechanism: An inter-sectoral water exchanges programming analysis. Water Resources and Economics, 100193.
[10] Sharghi, S., & Kerachian, R. (2022). A seasonal smart market mechanism for sustainable groundwater management in agricultural regions. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 32, 214-229.
[11] Rahnama, M. (2006), study of the subsidence phenomenon of the Rafsanjan plain. Final report of the project, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman Regional Water Company, Ministry of Energy. (In Persian)
[12] Lempert, R. J., Popper, S. W., & Bankes, S. C. (2003). Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy Analysis. Santa Monica, CA, RAND Corporation, MR-1626-RPC
[13] Ferguson, L., & Haviland, D. (2016). Pistachio production manual (Vol. 3545). UCANR Publications.
[14] Safari, S., Sharghi, S., Kerachian, R., & Noory, H. (2023). A market-based mechanism for long-term groundwater management using remotely sensed data. Journal of Environmental Management, 332, 117409.
Modares Civil Engineering journal
Volume 23, Issue 4
September and October 2023
Pages 143-162