Numerical simulation of landslides caused by rainfall of different intensities

Document Type : Original Research

Author
F. Salmasi
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz
10.22034/25.5.5
Abstract
Foothills, plains, alluvial areas, and sloping areas whose soil is geologically susceptible to landslides, can become unstable and dangerous. In Iran, because of their soil type, Mazandaran, Gilan, Lorestan, Golestan and Khuzestan provinces are more vulnerable to landslides than other provinces. But taking into account factors such as earthquakes, extreme weather, and human interference, other parts of the country can also be prone to landslides. In case of rainfall and absorption of water by clay layers, the possibility of landslides increases. If the slope of the land is suitable, the slope will move on the clay layer and the thrust will occur downwards. In many mountains and steep areas, the conditions for slope failure may be available in terms of the slope angle, the type of soil and the presence of clay layers. But in the absence of sufficient soil moisture, this phenomenon is not observed. Landslides occur whenever rainfall happens and water penetrates the clay layer. Cutting down forest trees, destroying vegetation and pastures, along with possible rainfall and soil moisture, cam cause landslides on steep slopes. In fact, land use changes contribute to landslides. By examining the statistics over the last three decades in the northern provinces of Iran, it can be seen that landslides were far less likely when there was proper vegetation. The occurrence of heavy rains can cause failure in a large number of soil slopes. During these heavy rainfalls, the underground water level rises and increases the pore water pressure and reduces the stability of the soil. The purpose of this study is to investigate changes in pore water pressure and the factor of safety for slope stability. The flow of water inside the soil is numerically modeled as a two-dimensional, saturated-unsaturated, unsteady flow. The finite element method (FEM) is used to calculate the pore water pressure and the limit equilibrium method is used to determine the factor of safety for slope stability. To simulate the unsteady flow, time duration of 4 days is used with a time step of 0.1 days. The rainfall duration was assumed to be 24 hours. The intensities of different rainfalls are used as the input flux on the soil surface. The soil moisture curve, which shows the relationship between suction-moisture content and suction-hydraulic conductivity, is used. The results show that different rainfall intensities have different effects on soil moisture profile. As the intensity of precipitation increase, the factor of safety of slope stability decreases. This decrease is steeper for the first 24 hours of rainfall and over the three days after the rain stopped, its slope decreased. For example, for a rainfall intensity of 2.04 mm/hour and the duration of one day, resulted in a factor of safety of slope stability equal to 1.853, and at the end of the fourth day, it was 1.743. In other words, the factor of safety decreased by 5.9%.

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Modares Civil Engineering journal
Volume 25, Issue 5 - Serial Number 85
November and December 2025