یک رویکرد غیرمستقیم برآورد تمایل به پرداخت جرایم تخلفات سرعت در رانندگی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی اصیل (کامل)

نویسندگان
علی یاراحمدی 1
محسن فلاح‌زواره 2
مجید ذبیحی طاری 3
1 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران
2 استادیار گروه مهندسی عمران دانشکده فنی و مهندسی دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران ایران
3 استادیار دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران-شرق
چکیده
رانندگی با سرعت زیاد از مهمترین عوامل افزایش شدت و احتمال وقوع تصادفات است. از جمله رایج­ترین و مؤثرترین عوامل بازدارنده در ارتکاب به تخلفات نقض مقررات سرعت مجاز، تعیین نوع و سطوح مناسب جرایم و اعمال مؤثر آن­ها است. با این وجود، تاکنون در مورد سطح بازدارندگی جرایم، چگونگی واکنش رانندگان نسبت به افزایش جرایم و یا اعمال مکانیزم­های جدید بازدارنده مطالعات زیادی انجام نپذیرفته است. پژوهش حاضر در زمره نخستین مطالعاتی است که در آن به مقایسه اثربخشی مکانیزم­های مختلف بازدارندگی از تخلفات نقض سرعت مجاز (شامل جریمه نقدی، نمره منفی، توقیف خودرو و محرومیت اجتماعی) پرداخته شده است. بدین منظور از یک رویکرد غیرمستقیم آنالیز انتخاب گسسته و مدل­سازی لوجیت ترکیبی برای محاسبه تمایل به پرداخت رانندگان برای جرایم تخلفات سرعت استفاده شد. پرسشنامه به روش طراحی آزمایش و با توجه به ملاحظات تعادل و تعامد طراحی گردید. پرسشگری به روش نمونه­گیری در دسترس در سال 98 در میان دانشجویان دارای فعالیت رانندگی و در پردیس­های کرج دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، دانشکده­های فنی دانشگاه تهران و دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران-شرق انجام شد. در مجموع 550 پرسشنامه شامل 2004 انتخاب تکمیل گردید. نتایج حاکی از بازدارندگی بیشتر مکانیزم محرومیت اجتماعی (بر حسب واحد) نسبت به سایر مکانیزم­های بازدارندگی از تخلفات سرعت می­باشد. همچنین با افزایش سن، بازدارندگی مکانیزم­های نقدی و نمره منفی کاهش و بازدارندگی محرومیت اجتماعی افزایش می­یابد. یافته­ها بر توسعه بیشتر سیاست­های غیرپولی افزایش بازدارندگی جرایم مربوط به سرعت در آینده تأکید دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

An indirect approach to estimate the drivers’ willingness to pay for speeding violations

نویسندگان English

Ali Yarahmadi 1
Mohsen Fallah Zavareh 2
Majid Zabihi Tari 3
1 Kharazmi University, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Kharazmi University, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Islamic Azad University, East Tehran branch, Department of Civil Engineering, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Speeding contributes to increased frequency and severity of road crashes. Strengthening deterrence of speeding requires imposing effective penalties for non-compliance with speed limits, as well as effective enforcement of the legislation. Yet, different monetary and non-monetary penalties have been proposed for offensive drivers. The literature, however, lacks evidence on relative deterrence of existing penalties and the way the drivers respond to new forms of penalty systems. This study is among the first that investigated relative deterrence of different speeding penalties including “monetary fines”, “demerit point”, “car detention”, and “social deprivation”. Questionnaire was designed based on choice experiment method (CEM) with considerations of balance and orthogonality. Convenience sampling method was used to collect data in campuses of Kharazmi University in Karaj, College of Engineering in University of Tehran, and East Tehran Branch of Islamic Azad University, which all are among the largest university campuses in the country. A total of 550 questionnaires including 2004 choices were conducted (response rate: 91.1%). Using an indirect approach, we conducted a mixed logit (ML) model to estimate the drivers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for non-monetary speeding penalties. Results indicated that “social deprivation” would offer stronger deterrence compared to other penalties. Deterrence effect of “monetary fines” and “demerit point” increases with increase in drivers’ age. Findings emphasized that further development of non-monetary penalties in the future would increase deterrence of speeding violations.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Traffic violation
speeding
Discrete Choice
mixed logit
willingness to pay
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مهندسی عمران مدرس
دوره 20، شماره 2
خرداد و تیر 1399
صفحه 85-97